This report is the latest release from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Office of Thrift Supervision on the mortgage industry and the stats on the performance.  It is a great report that comes out quarterly that lays out all the details of the mortgages out there.  A lot of great data tables and charts that show the current performance of mortgages and also the performance of the home retention actions.  Below is an excerpt from the executive summary:……

A study done by First American Core Logic released by CAR (California Association of Realtors):

“Shadow Housing Inventory” Put At 1.7 Million in 3Q According to First American CoreLogic.

Summary:

• As of September 2009, First American CoreLogic estimated there was a 1.7‐million‐unit pending supply of residential housing inventory, up from 1.1 million a year earlier. Pending supply, sometimes referred to as “shadow” inventory, estimates real estate owned (REO) by banks and mortgage companies, as a result of foreclosures and other actions, such as deeds in lieu, as well as real estate that is at least 90 days delinquent.  Normally shadow inventory would not be included in the official measures of unsold inventory. At the current sales rate, the pending supply is 3.3 months, up from 2.4 months a year ago. The months’ supply measures how quickly the inventory will run off given the current sales rate.

More info and charts on full post….

I know that this is a post that I have done before, but I wanted to revisit it since a lot has changed since this post was originally made.  With the terrible foreclosure numbers that came out yesterday are we finally moving out from the “eye of the storm” on the mortgage reset chart or is this rise from a different animal such as “strategic foreclosures” and/or FHA ?

We have all seen this chart by now, but just in case you haven’t its right here for your clicking pleasure.

Looking at this chart one would think to themselves “Well it look s like we have another wave of bad mortgages and foreclosures coming” … but why isn’t any of this coming up with the banks projections? Before I ask any more ridiculous questions lets break it down into bull v. bear camps:

Click on Read the Full Post below to read on

FHA loans are the new exotic mortgage out there.  Every addict …  I mean person involved with real estate is gobbling up as much as they can get with the Government backing.  It seems that the banks have learned a lesson from the mortgage fallout by actually requiring people to establish equity in a home right off the bat with 20% down, but the Government is much more savvy only requiring 3.5% down.  Im sure this will work out great for all involved… by the way if your an American citizen that means you.

There is a good article in the New York Times that is related to this at this link and a graph

• FHA has guaranteed about 25% of all new U.S. mortgages written in 2009, up from just 2% in 2005.
• Delinquency rates have  skyrocketed to 32%
• Portfolio size is 800 billion to 1 trillion
• 80% of new mortgage origination – Govt involved with (FHA, Fannie, Freddie)

Kenneth Donohue, the inspector general of the Housing and Urban Development Department, who is also F.H.A.’s watchdog. Mr. Donohue said the drop in reserves was “a flashing red light” that the agency was not taking seriously enough. “It might be we’ll get ourselves out of this and that everything will be fine, but I don’t paint that rosy a picture,” Mr. Donohue said. “They’re banking on the fact that the economy will continue to improve, that the housing market will begin to sustain itself.” He noted that if private lenders had raised their down payment requirements in the last two years, it raised the question, “what does the F.H.A. think it is doing by asking only 3.5 percent?”

Also to make things interesting we are in the “eye of the storm” in terms of the infamous mortgage reset chart …  our article on this

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA), a former real estate businessman, is proposing a new bill that would not only offer a bigger credit, but it would also remove the income caps ($75,000) that kept a lot of buyers out of the credit.

Below is a copy of the bill with all of the details.

Isakson Home Buyer Bill

All you ever hear about is how Building Permits are a leading indicator to the market. So I decided to check it out. I got the complete history of building permits from the US Census Bureau. The data goes back to 1960. I used this to see if there was truly any relation between the stock market performance and the building permits, by comparing the charts based on the same time periods.

What I found was pretty interesting in that there does seem to be a correlation, but it is a much better leading indicator of market tops than market bottoms.

This research will remain open ended and I would like to hear any suggestions or comments from you on other related research such as different time frame comparisons .. etc. Hope you find it interesting.. just click the image below for the full pdf.

Housing Permits Report

Thoughts?

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