Naked Hedge Fund

Today the market broke a 5 week trendline. This trend line has been established since the beginning of the earnings season and has resulted in a little more than 17% gain on the S&P 500 (SPY) from bottom ($87 on 7/8/09) to the potential top ($102 on 8/7/09). Just for some perspective on that move… based on historical perspectives 17% gain on an entire index is usually outstanding for 2-3 years… this happened in about a month. Fueled by financial earnings reports and recession ending parties in the media.

The market has been on a binge ride lately and refuses to show any signs of anything stopping. Even today you can throw ugly earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo at it and it just takes it in stride and keeps trucking along. Remember the trend is your friend… but is this sustainable?

Ive included a Rolling Stones video and some charts.

Since Ive had some positive comments about the historical earnings charts that I have been putting up I decided to put up all the upcoming major financials on a post here so that you can reference it all together easily.

Sorry for this rant, but Im sick of everyone in the media concerning themselves with the facts that GS made a ton of money and are going to pay their workers well.

All the conspiracy theories and websites dedicated to such are probably true, but where does it all get you? Lets talk about relevant information and by relevant I mean makes us money.

This upcoming Tuesday morning (7-14-09) Goldman Sachs will be releasing their earnings for Q2 2009.The importance of these earnings cannot be overblown in that the overall market basically lies in the hands of these financial earnings. The market always has and always will follow the financial sectors lead.

I put together an analysis with charts showing both fundamental and technical analysis for your use.

Graph showing a bit of history with Alcoa’s earnings and the estimates of the upcoming earnings to prepare for tonights kickoff.

Q2 Earnings primer with a historic look at P/E ratios and where we are.

The Market spoke volumes today as it gapped down with the jobs report prior to the 4th of July holiday weekend. Below are a couple charts that show the damage. First is a 3 month daily chart that shows 3 moving averages (25 day, 50 day, 200 day) .. look how the market got rejected by the 25 day and has broke through the 50 day. The second chart shows a 2 year weekly chart with the 50 day moving average… showing the strength of the 50 day moving average on a weekly basis.

Today the market puked on itself and has been struggling ever since the 200 day moving average was in the picture. Todays action brought the market to a closing below both the 50 day Moving average and the 200 day MA. The bulls will have to prove themselves. Below is a chart showing the importance of today’s action.

Its starting to be a regular occurence where the trading robots over at JP Morgan start a buying spree in the last half hour of trading. Below is a chart showing this action, including todays push up. This move resulted in the DOW having a price range of 190 points. What are your thoughts on this???