Naked Hedge Fund

On the post is the earnings chart for Intel. It shows the history of Intels earnings and upcoming expections with the stocks performance during the same period. As you can see in the chart below the earnings difference year over year for the upcoming earnings Thursday could be potentially huge if they meet expectations. The earnings outlook will be very interesting and important for the streets reaction as well. The street expects $0.45 tomorrow evening.

Alcoa kicks off earnings tonight. Obviously the industry that Alcoa falls into has been red hot as of late with the falling dollar. It will be interesting to see what the numbers look like. Below is a chart showing the earnings expectations and the past earnings of the last year or so with a back lay of the stocks chart. The year over year comparison of Q4 earnings has the potential to spark a rally based on validation of Alcoa turning the corner from the depths of last March. 2008 Q4 earnings -$0.28 and the expectations for 2009 Q4 is $0.05, which is quite a difference and even more so for next quarter if they set positive outlooks.

Naked Hedge Fund Weekly report. PDF on post.

Today Meredith threw a curve ball at the overly optimistic market with fresh downgrade on Goldman Sachs from a buy to a Neutral. Normally this kind of thing doesn’t matter to us here because most analysts are completely off base or in the companies pocket, but Meredith has proven herself in the recent past. Her reasoning behind the downgrade follows a theme of “Why be greedy” in that the price of GS has already met her year target price ($186) in the matter of months. Thanks to ZeroHedge for making this document available.

Actual note from Meredith Whitneys Advisory Group on the post.

Well even though the earnings season has just started there has definitely been a trend established where the earnings have been received well and stocks have responded in a positive fashion. Of course the rallies in gold and oil have helped as well.

This week has some big boys reporting:

* Intel : Tues Night
* JP Morgan: Wed Morning
* Citigroup: Thur Morning
* Goldman Sachs: Thur Morning
* Google: Thur Night
* IBM: Thur Night
* Bank of America: Fri Morning
* General Electric: Fri Morning

In the post we go into some more details and charts about JPM and INTC.