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Beginning of another Meltdown?

Beginning of another Meltdown?

Sorry for the dramatic title, but Im trying to practice eye catching marketing ploys like CNBC and Yahoo Finance. Anyways as you noted yesterday we made the rotation to short when we sold our long SPY at $110. I got a bunch of emails today (don’t ask me why everyone refuses to leave comments) wondering why the change?

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Tough Spot

Tough Spot

Went long today at $109.40 on SPY.

The market has been a choppy mess as of late and been very hard to get a solid trend. Currently the trend is up and we are above the 50 Day moving average, but we still have the 200 day moving average to deal with around $111 on SPY.

Below are charts with markups explaining the situation.

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Earnings and Resistance

Earnings and Resistance

The bulls have got the market churning again even though a week earlier everything was completely different. A bottom call from Doug Kass and some “value buying” later we are back to where we started with our recent short. Chart…

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Ouch

Ouch

Today was a viscous day to the downside as it broke through the support that we mentioned a couple posts ago. This triggered our stop on SPY and now have a short position with SH, since the portfolio for this site is either long or short at all times…. no cash. Unfortunately with gap down…..

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Market Update

Market Update

This has been a nightmare week. The decision to go long last week has turned up sour so far and makes me think of the scene from Anchorman when he jumps into the bear cage and says ” I immediately regret this decision”. Things looked hopeful Monday morning with the rally….

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Market Update – Charts

Market Update – Charts

The market was able to confirm its uptrend recently despite some bearish items. Some of the bearish items are flailing financials, weak IWM (Russell 2k), relatively weak tech, and very low volume with the uptrend. These items are a concern and are the reason we are not completely sold on the new uptrend, but we will still have to respect it. The next couple days will be telling if the bulls can hold on to start a viable uptrend.

Below are 3 charts of the market (SPY). A short term (2 week), mid term (6 month), and long term (4 year) chart showing mark ups that I made.

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Market Rejected

Market Rejected

Today the bulls had the market primed and ready to rally through the 200 day moving average, but instead they market got rejected big by the 200 day moving average. This returns the market to bear market territory and reestablished the downtrend.

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Market Setup for a Potential Surge

Market Setup for a Potential Surge

The bulls have the market perfectly placed right on the 200 day moving average ready to break it out on some phony jobs numbers that are a lagging indicator. We will have to see if this will be the case when the report comes out tomorrow morning and evaluate our position with the Naked Hedge Fund which has been short since late April. Chart on Full Post.

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Bounce Up

Bounce Up

Today we had a bullish bounce back. Full post has a chart to put things in perspective. There is resistance at the 200 day moving average around 110.50 on the SPY.

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Below the 200 Day Moving Average

Below the 200 Day Moving Average

This week has definitely been a nasty week for the bulls and a great week for the Naked Hedge Fund as stocks continued a slide down into bear territory. We haven’t been below the 200 day moving average since mid 2009. Currently the market is down more than 300 points as Stops are being triggered in every part of the market. The next line of support is at $106 on the SPY, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the bulls try to defend the 200 day moving average by bouncing back through at some point in the near future.

Needless to say we are currently remaining short since our rotation on April 30th, where ….

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