Housing Permits a Leading Indicator? Revisited
11:03 UTC 20 Jul 2009 
2 Comments
A few months ago I dove into some research on the Housing Permits and how they are as a leading indicator since CNBC and gang will base an entire economic recovery call on them. I wanted to see the real relation of the markets moves and this data. And this past Friday the data for June came out and got everyone excited again. Below are a couple things:
- First is a video from the Larry the Krudlow show … im not even sure what its called anymore since he got blasted off the air for a while after his goldilocks economy blackeye. Anyways if you watch around the 4 minute mark he starts throwing out their classic charts showing a very small data range of a few months… a perfect example of how they deceive from the big picture of historic all time lows and about a 75% depression from the peak in this data. The video is followed on the full post page by the chart that would never be shown on CNBC on Housing Permits and where we are.
- Second is the updated report (PDF) that I put together that has: (1) a historical comparison to the mid 1970′s recovery in relation to Housing Permits. (2) Does housing permits predict market tops and/or bottoms? (3) Going forward a view that isn’t talked about, where housing permits reverse and break their lows.
Chart CNBC would never show (next page in full post):
4 page Report (click on picture…. in pdf format):
Housing Permits Report
CNBC is the best at what they do thats for sure… make sure everyone is happy even though they are going to get blindsided.
By the way good research Nick