Retail Sales Report Prep

The big economic number of the week is the Retail Sales numbers coming out Friday from the U.S. Census Bureau.  For those that are interested to look at more details on the numbers you can go to Census Bureau .  The upcoming numbers are for the month of November.  The market is expecting an increase of 0.6% month over month (from Oct to Nov).  The prior month saw an increase of 1.4% (from Sep to Oct)

Below is a big picture chart showing all the data from the Census Bureau, which goes back to Jan. 1992.  You can see the significance of the financial crisis with the large drop that started in 2008.  The recession of the early 2000’s doesn’t even show a blip compared to the current recession.


The next chart shows a zoom in of the large dip that started in 2008 and recent numbers.


Fridays numbers are significant in that the results could be higher than last years November numbers.  If this happens it will mark the first time that the numbers have increased year over year since the collapse.  You can imagine all of the bullish commentary that will result that could easily pump the market, even though the numbers will definitely be much lower than the Nov. 2007 numbers.  The market will only care about the year over year and the financial pundits will declare victory over the economic collapse.

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4 Responses to “Retail Sales Report Prep”

  1. Looks like someone may have got the retail sales numbers early this morning… RTH is already in rally mode a day early.

  2. Well of course the retail sales estimates were beat pretty handily… they expected 0.6% and it came in at a 1.3% increase month to month.

    And to boot the $314,086 million number beat last years Nov by 1.9%

  3. I’m impressed by your writing. Are you a professional or just very kowneldegable?

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