Hello 200 Day Moving Average, long time no see. Some Analysis

10:19 UTC 21 May 2009 10 Comments

Well after this 35% rally we are back to test old faithful the 200 Day MA

The Great Wall

The Great Wall

The 200 Day MA is the Great Wall that separates Bull market from Bear market.  This is the first time we have been within striking distance of the MA since last May right around the same time eerily enough.  And we all know how the market has done since last May.  In my analysis I put down both bullish points and bearish along with a comparison to historic major bear markets in relation to the 200 day moving average.

The points are left up to discussion and Im interested in hearing your thoughts on this significant potential turning point.

Click on the image below to view the full report in pdf.

200 Day MA Analysis

200 Day MA Analysis

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Finance, Stock Technical Analysis

10 Responses to “Hello 200 Day Moving Average, long time no see. Some Analysis”

  1. Sam T. Reply 0:39 UTC 27 May 2009 at 12:39 am

    I have a feeling this market is going to poke through that 200 day moving average… even though it shouldn't be.

  2. nicksandiego Reply 16:20 UTC 27 May 2009 at 4:20 pm

    I agree this market could poke its head through to scare the shorts and then retreat.

  3. Mike M. Reply 16:25 UTC 27 May 2009 at 4:25 pm

    Nick… is the 200 day around $93 on the SPY?

  4. nicksandiego Reply 16:29 UTC 27 May 2009 at 4:29 pm

    Yes currently its around $93, but it is down trending .. so as the days go on here the lower it gets and closer to the current price on the SPY of $91.50.

    Also there is a W pattern that is formed right below the 200 day, which is a bullish sign usually that the right side of the W pattern will break through. An important level is $92.80. That is the peak of the middle of the W and where SPY has to break through to complete the pattern.

  5. Big Mike Reply 18:57 UTC 28 May 2009 at 6:57 pm

    Nice work Nick… very good information and charts

  6. mole Reply 20:14 UTC 30 May 2009 at 8:14 pm

    good

  7. nicksandiego Reply 19:54 UTC 01 Jun 2009 at 7:54 pm

    Alright we got the poke through today… lets see what its got from here.

  8. Will Reply 22:23 UTC 05 Jun 2009 at 10:23 pm

    Great work on the Tech Analysis. Watch for the 50/200 day confirmation. It may be a set-up for a fail, but if it succeeds, expect BIG money to pour in.

    I would be interested to know what PE we traded at for prior bottom/tops. Seems like the short term PE we are looking at is 18-20…pretty high considering the risk still in the market, but did PE jump in the past historical rallies?

  9. Snake Reply 18:26 UTC 23 Jun 2009 at 6:26 pm

    Hi Nick,

    Liking the site, I am a new visitor. Just wondering what you are using for the charting ! Seems quite slick especially the 2-year Chart !

    Thanks!

  10. Nicholas Lewarne Reply 18:40 UTC 23 Jun 2009 at 6:40 pm

    Thanks for the comments Snake!

    The black background charts are from BigCharts.com

    The white background charts are a mix of Scottrade or Yahoo Finance.

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