Good Start!

Below is a PDF with the NHF weekly.  Click on it for the 2 page report.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a paper about the massive amounts of excess reserves that banks are packing onto their balance sheets.  Below is the link to the PDF:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci15-8.pdf

More info on full post…..

A study done by First American Core Logic released by CAR (California Association of Realtors):

“Shadow Housing Inventory” Put At 1.7 Million in 3Q According to First American CoreLogic.

Summary:

• As of September 2009, First American CoreLogic estimated there was a 1.7‐million‐unit pending supply of residential housing inventory, up from 1.1 million a year earlier. Pending supply, sometimes referred to as “shadow” inventory, estimates real estate owned (REO) by banks and mortgage companies, as a result of foreclosures and other actions, such as deeds in lieu, as well as real estate that is at least 90 days delinquent.  Normally shadow inventory would not be included in the official measures of unsold inventory. At the current sales rate, the pending supply is 3.3 months, up from 2.4 months a year ago. The months’ supply measures how quickly the inventory will run off given the current sales rate.

More info and charts on full post….

Happy New Year everyone!

The quiet week naturally ended with some volatility in the last half hour to remind everyone what a crazy year 2009 has been with the stock market.  Its hard to put into words how intense the market was this year with everything that happened.  But by the end of it all we were able to pull away a 35.49% return with only 14 days of trades throughout the year, where we either went full long SPY or full short SPY.  We are very happy to beat the S&P 500, which ended the year with a return of 23.5%.  Its hard to believe that the S&P ended the year in the green by such a large margin after how the year started out.    Keep in mind that the S&P is still about 30% from its peak in 2007 after this big rally back.

We are hoping that this upcoming year will be just as profitable for the Naked Hedge Fund and in turn you.

Below is a PDF with the NHF weekly.  Click on it for the 2 page report.

A lot of happy people out there… or so it seems.  The green shoots have bloomed into amazing profits at banks and a 60%+ rally in the market from the dark lows.  I’ll admit I’ve been a happy camper as well closing in on a yearly return of 35%+  for the NHF portfolio with only 14 days that trades were made (long/short S&P) is unheard of… well at least for the last fifty years or so.  And then Santa Claus came to town to boot.  Imagine being invested/locked into a CD for the past year earning a measly 2-3% for the whole year!!  yikes.

But even with all of this euphoria surrounding the market you get a sense that there is a ghostly figure hanging around.  Why does it feel like history is repeating itself and we are setting up for failure?  Maybe its because:…

Santa Claus is real!

Below is a PDF with the NHF weekly. Click on it for the 2 page report.

Art Cashin, the director of floor operations for UBS, does a nice job in this interview of smoothing out everything that happened this past year and putting it all in perspective.

Part 2 he goes deeper into history and also the current trade environment for investors.

Part 2 and 3 on the full post……