Tag Archives: technical analysis
Earnings and Resistance

Earnings and Resistance

The bulls have got the market churning again even though a week earlier everything was completely different. A bottom call from Doug Kass and some “value buying” later we are back to where we started with our recent short. Chart…

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Market Rejected

Market Rejected

Today the bulls had the market primed and ready to rally through the 200 day moving average, but instead they market got rejected big by the 200 day moving average. This returns the market to bear market territory and reestablished the downtrend.

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Market Setup for a Potential Surge

Market Setup for a Potential Surge

The bulls have the market perfectly placed right on the 200 day moving average ready to break it out on some phony jobs numbers that are a lagging indicator. We will have to see if this will be the case when the report comes out tomorrow morning and evaluate our position with the Naked Hedge Fund which has been short since late April. Chart on Full Post.

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Below the 200 Day Moving Average

Below the 200 Day Moving Average

This week has definitely been a nasty week for the bulls and a great week for the Naked Hedge Fund as stocks continued a slide down into bear territory. We haven’t been below the 200 day moving average since mid 2009. Currently the market is down more than 300 points as Stops are being triggered in every part of the market. The next line of support is at $106 on the SPY, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the bulls try to defend the 200 day moving average by bouncing back through at some point in the near future.

Needless to say we are currently remaining short since our rotation on April 30th, where ….

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Big Monday Rally

Big Monday Rally

Today’s bounce back was definitely big in terms of numbers, but not in volume. Also even though it was a big gain it still wasn’t able to break through the current downtrend line. This week will be an interesting battle to say the least. The chart below shows the trendline on a 2 week chart of the SPY.

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Long Term Resistance Coming Into Play?

Long Term Resistance Coming Into Play?

Just as an update to the previous post about the potential long term resistance that we may be heading into now. Chart below.

The previous post: http://www.nakedhedgefund.com/finance/does-rally-hav…long-term-look/

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Does Rally Have More Legs? Long Term Look

To say that this market has defied all odds with this huge rally is an understatement. Now one has to take a look at how far we have come and think seriously about how far we can go. Technically speaking there is some significant resistance on the horizon. And in this case the significance is substantial in that these tests only come around every 5 years or so as of late. Below is a chart showing these tests. The chart is a 10 year chart of the SPY sampled at a monthly rate. As you can tell by the amount of time involved in the chart these are very long term trends that are very big and heavy hitters. The market has already somewhat passed the first test of the 25 month moving average, but has the 50 month moving average on the horizon somewhere around $123 on the SPY. The chart explains it better on the full post

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Naked Hedge Fund Weekly #16

Volatility Anyone?

Naked Hedge Fund Weekly report. PDF on post.

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Naked Hedge Fund Weekly #15

Fed rattling it’s sword?

Naked Hedge Fund Weekly report. PDF on post.

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Market Update 1-21-10

This earnings season isn’t working out to well for the market and the big question is if this is going to turn into something more. Obviously the markets have been very overbought and the VIX is extremely low long term as our post noted last week. Today the market confirmed the downtrend that we have been watching and is now at a support level at $112.50. We are going to keep an eye on this support going into the close today and will let you know if we do make a rotation to short. Below are a couple charts for info.

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